Application of Expert Systems in Project Management Decision Aiding

SUMMARY The purpose of this research was to assess the feasibility of developing an expert systems-based project management decision aid to enhance the performance of NASA project managers. The research effort included extensive literature reviews in the areas of project management, project management decision aiding, expert systems technology, and human-computer interface engineering. Literature reviews were augmented by focused interviews with NASA managers. Time estimation for project scheduling was identified as the target activity for decision augmentation, and a design was developed for an Integrated NASA System for Intelligent Time Estimation (INSITE). The proposed INSITE design was judged feasible with a low level of risk. A partial proof-of-concept experiment was performed and was successful. Specific conclusions drawn from the research and analyses include: time estimation is critical to NASA planning/scheduling needs; existing methods of project time estimation rely on the identification of analogous projects which have already been completed; the identification of analogies is usually based on the experience and recall of a single person, severely limiting the number and accuracy of those project histories which can be brought to bear on the problem; expertise in estimation by analogy can be captured using existing technologies such as pattern matching, statistical inference, and rule-based analysis; given an effective human-computer interface, an automated estimation-by-analogy system will enhance manager performance by providing a framework for systematic time estimation and by allowing managers to transcend the limitations of their own experience. The INSITE concept is potentially applicable in any management sphere, commercial or government, where time estimation is required for project scheduling. As project scheduling is a nearly universal management activity, the range of possibilities is considerable. The INSITE concept also holds potential for enhancing other management tasks, especially in areas such as cost estimation, where estimation-by-analogy is already a proven method. This SBlR data is furnished with SBlR rights under NASA Contract No. NAS5-30040. For a period of two years after acceptance of all items to be delivered under this contract, the Government agrees to use this data for Government purposes only, and it shall not be disclosed outside the Government (including disclosure for procurement purposes) during such period without permission of the Contractor, except that, subject to the foregoing use and disclosure prohibitions, such data may be disclosed for use by support Contractors. After the aforesaid two-year period, the Government has a royalty-free license to use, and to authorize others to use on …